Moody’s outlook on Bulgaria’s Baa3 sovereign rating has been raised from stable to positive. It’s the first positive rating action on an EU sovereign since July 2008. The positive outlook means Moody’s is considering upgrading the Bulgarian sovereign to Baa2. Such an upgrade is contingent upon the country’s ability to renew growth and weather the impact of regional shocks. “Moody’s expects the recession to end in mid-2010, although the problems in Greece will likely dampen the recovery this year,” says Kenneth Orchard, a VP in Moody’s sovereign risk group. About 9 per cent of Bulgarian exports go to Greece, and Greek companies are major investors in the country, particularly the banking sector. “The Bulgarian government’s finances were relatively resilient through the 2008-09 financial crisis,” explained Mr Orchard. “Despite a deep recession, Bulgaria will have very low budget deficits by global standards in 2009 and 2010, keeping government debt ratios low and stable.”
Financial Times January 21, 2010 10:39amby Emma Saunders
http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/
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